Everyday Killings in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The average figure of per-day murders each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent government data. But, public safety experts have advised that homicide data could fail to indicate enhanced national stability.

Marked Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded in these months is extremely significant,” the President remarked, noting that in November the lowest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense cartel infighting, alongside the administration's highly militarised operations to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent times. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security plan for an apparently steeper drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

However, public safety researchers urged caution that using murder numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is notably true considering the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be very good information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for assessing the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to properly recognize and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was also an issue because it could mask periods when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still plagued by severe violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to construct a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst said.