Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
