A Permanent Ceasefire Involving Israel and the Palestinian Territories? We've Seen This Pattern – The Outcome Was More Bloodshed

So, which time period is this? The White House occupant, after months of implicit backing, has at last become involved to halt an military campaign from Israel that has reduced extensive sections of a city in the Middle East to rubble, causing thousands deceased and generating worldwide anger.

The campaign has followed a sequence of strikes on Israel. Currently, under pressure from the White House, the Israel's leader, a rightwinger with an aptitude for populist rhetoric and an intense sense of Zionist historical purpose, has consented to a truce.

Historical Comparisons

The year is not present day, but 1982. The location is not present-day Gaza, but the Lebanese capital. The US leader is President Reagan, not today's leadership.

We find numerous variations between the situation in the Lebanese nation more than four in the past and what has happened in Palestinian territories in the past two years. The October attack of recent times, which killed twelve hundred and included numerous taken hostage, bears little comparison with the somewhat modest actions of the Palestine Liberation Organization in the time before military entry of the Lebanese nation.

Uncanny Similarities

Several similarities are remarkable. Reagan finally picked up the phone the counterpart, telling him that events in the capital was "a holocaust" and saying the relations between their states could be seriously harmed if the conflict persisted.

In 1982, much as today, the conflict developed in immediate coverage on global media. Many journalists flew into Beirut to document for the first time an Middle Eastern conflict without censorship by either side.

Aftermath and Consequences

What happened following the communication from American leadership and the halt in fighting in Lebanon is revealing. The PLO, its groups and officials were scattered across multiple countries and a multiple nations.

Washington then withdrew US-led peacekeepers – an infringement of the agreement with PLO leadership. Bashir Gemayel, the nation's recently chosen head of state and Israel's preferred proxy, was killed by Damascus operatives.

Regional Transformation

Similar patterns emerged across the wider Middle East. By the end of the 1970s, the predominantly worldly and progressive ideas that had appeared to provide the potential of a changed reality in the Middle Eastern nations a decade or so earlier were undermined.

The consequences of this emerged rapidly, very quickly

Throughout the area, Israel and the United States now encountered enemies who were significantly more stubborn, lethal and effective than the leftists and nationalists of previous times.

International Reaction

Internationally, the consequences of this were unexpected. Throughout the that decade, western analysts and policymakers had sought to understand what led to armed fundamentalism.

Then, in the start of the eighties, this stopped. National figures in the United States, the United Kingdom and elsewhere were lost interest in "root causes" of violence.

Current Similarities

Last week, sources suggest that present administration told government representatives that the state could not confront global opinion and recognized Palestinian aspirations for a independent nation.

This also was an repetition of historical precedent. In the consequence of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, previous leadership told Israel that the power of its military alone could not "bring just and lasting peace" and accepted "legitimate rights of the Arab residents."

But a US-led comprehensive agreement intended to resolve those grievances stalled completely. From exile, Palestinian leadership looked on powerlessly.

International interest in the Middle East waned. Israel resisted any concessions. Later, there was the first intifada, and the establishment of further armed organizations.

• The cycles of the past offer thought-provoking lessons for present-day diplomatic initiatives
• Permanent settlements require addressing fundamental problems rather than short-term truces
• Area politics continue to change in multifaceted and sometimes unexpected ways